Comparison of UTCI with other thermal indices in the assessment of heat and cold effects on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic.
Identifieur interne : 000F50 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000F49; suivant : 000F51Comparison of UTCI with other thermal indices in the assessment of heat and cold effects on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic.
Auteurs : Aleš Urban [République tchèque] ; Jan Kysel [République tchèque]Source :
- International journal of environmental research and public health [ 1660-4601 ] ; 2014.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- effets indésirables : Basse température, Température élevée.
- mortalité : Maladies cardiovasculaires.
- épidémiologie : République tchèque.
- étiologie : Maladies cardiovasculaires.
- Humains, Modèles linéaires.
- Wicri :
- geographic : République tchèque.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Czech Republic.
- adverse effects : Cold Temperature, Hot Temperature.
- etiology : Cardiovascular Diseases.
- mortality : Cardiovascular Diseases.
- Humans, Linear Models.
Abstract
We compare the recently developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) with other thermal indices in analysing heat- and cold-related effects on cardiovascular (CVD) mortality in two different (urban and rural) regions in the Czech Republic during the 16-year period from 1994-2009. Excess mortality is represented by the number of deaths above expected daily values, the latter being adjusted for long-term changes, annual and weekly cycles, and epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. Air temperature, UTCI, Apparent Temperature (AT) and Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) are applied to identify days with heat and cold stress. We found similar heat effects on CVD mortality for air temperature and the examined thermal indices. Responses of CVD mortality to cold effects as characterised by different indices were much more varied. Particularly important is the finding that air temperature provides a weak cold effect in comparison with the thermal indices in both regions, so its application--still widespread in epidemiological studies--may underestimate the magnitude of cold-related mortality. These findings are important when possible climate change effects on heat- and cold-related mortality are estimated. AT and PET appear to be more universal predictors of heat- and cold- related mortality than UTCI when both urban and rural environments are of concern. UTCI tends to select windy rather than freezing days in winter, though these show little effect on mortality in the urban population. By contrast, significant cold-related mortality in the rural region if UTCI is used shows potential for UTCI to become a useful tool in cold exposure assessments.
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph110100952
PubMed: 24413706
Affiliations:
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sortKey="Kysel, Jan" sort="Kysel, Jan" uniqKey="Kysel J" first="Jan" last="Kysel">Jan Kysel</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague 4, Czech Republic. kysely@ufa.cas.cz.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République tchèque</country><wicri:regionArea>Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR, Boční II 1401, 141 31 Prague 4</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>141 31 Prague 4</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International journal of environmental research and public health</title><idno type="eISSN">1660-4601</idno><imprint><date when="2014" type="published">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Cardiovascular Diseases (etiology)</term><term>Cardiovascular Diseases (mortality)</term><term>Cold Temperature (adverse effects)</term><term>Czech Republic 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scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Cardiovascular Diseases</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Maladies cardiovasculaires</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>République tchèque</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="étiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Maladies cardiovasculaires</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Humans</term><term>Linear Models</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Humains</term><term>Modèles linéaires</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>République tchèque</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We compare the recently developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) with other thermal indices in analysing heat- and cold-related effects on cardiovascular (CVD) mortality in two different (urban and rural) regions in the Czech Republic during the 16-year period from 1994-2009. Excess mortality is represented by the number of deaths above expected daily values, the latter being adjusted for long-term changes, annual and weekly cycles, and epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. Air temperature, UTCI, Apparent Temperature (AT) and Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) are applied to identify days with heat and cold stress. We found similar heat effects on CVD mortality for air temperature and the examined thermal indices. Responses of CVD mortality to cold effects as characterised by different indices were much more varied. Particularly important is the finding that air temperature provides a weak cold effect in comparison with the thermal indices in both regions, so its application--still widespread in epidemiological studies--may underestimate the magnitude of cold-related mortality. These findings are important when possible climate change effects on heat- and cold-related mortality are estimated. AT and PET appear to be more universal predictors of heat- and cold- related mortality than UTCI when both urban and rural environments are of concern. UTCI tends to select windy rather than freezing days in winter, though these show little effect on mortality in the urban population. By contrast, significant cold-related mortality in the rural region if UTCI is used shows potential for UTCI to become a useful tool in cold exposure assessments.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>République tchèque</li></country></list><tree><country name="République tchèque"><noRegion><name sortKey="Urban, Ales" sort="Urban, Ales" uniqKey="Urban A" first="Aleš" last="Urban">Aleš Urban</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Kysel, Jan" sort="Kysel, Jan" uniqKey="Kysel J" first="Jan" last="Kysel">Jan Kysel</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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